对战牛牛

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                                    一文看懂医药行业2020年度投资策略

                                    来源:今日头条   2020/3/11 9:18:14

                                    医药行业2020年度投资策略:把握产业升级脉络,回归企业价值本源(长江证券)


                                    医药板块核心观点:把握产业升级脉络,回归企业价值本源


                                    对战牛牛 2018 NIANYILAI,BANSUIZHEGUOJIAYIBAOJUDECHENGLI,XINYIGAIZHENZHENGJINRUDAOLESHENSHUIQU。WOMENKANDAO,XUDUOYUANLAITINGLIUZAISHEXIANGJIEDUANDEZHENGCEJIAGOU,ZHENGZAIYIKUAISU、GAOXIAODEFANGSHILUODI,BINGDUICHANYEQIDAOLELIGANJIANYINGDEXIAOGUO。

                                    对战牛牛 SHOUXILIEZHENGCEDEYINGXIANG,YIYAOXINGYENEIBUDEFENHUAZHENGZAIBUDUANJIAJU。2019 NIAN 1-3 JIDU,YIYAOBANKUAIRENGRANYOU 84 JIAGONGSIKOUFEIJINGLIRUNZENGSUDADAO 30%YISHANG,ZHANBIDADAO 26%;TONGSHI,YEYOU 111 JIAQIYEKOUFEIJINGLIRUNCHUXIANBUTONGCHENGDUDEXIAHUA,ZHANBIDADAO35%。

                                    YIYAOBANKUAIDENEIBUFENHUA,ZAIZIBENSHICHANGCENGMIANYEDEDAOLEJIAOWEICHONGFENDEFANYING。NIANCHUZHIJIN,65 JIAYIYAOSHANGSHIGONGSIDEGUJIAZHANGFUCHAOGUO 50%,BUFENTOUBUGONGSISHIXIANLEFANBEISHANGZHANG。TONGSHI,GUJIAHENGPANHUOXIADIEDEQIYEYEBUZAISHAOSHU。

                                    ZHANZAIDANGQIANDESHIDIANLAIKAN,SHICHANGYIJUQIYEXIFENLINGYU、NEIZAIJILEIDECHAYI,YIJINGZAIGUZHICENGMIANJINXINGLEXITONGXINGDEXIUZHENG,BUTONGXIFENLINGYUDEGUZHICHAJINYIBULADA。YOUQISHIDUIYUBUFENRENGJUYOULIANGHAOCHENGZHANGQIANJINGDELONGTOUGONGSI,SHICHANGJIYULEJIAOGAODEGUZHIYIJIA。

                                    ZHANWANG 2020 NIANDEYIYAOBANKUAITOUZI,WOMENRENWEIZAIXINGYEJULIEBIANGEQIEDUIGEXIFENLINGYUDEGUZHIXIUZHENGYIJINGJIAOWEICHONGFENDEQINGKUANGXIA,ZAIJINJINYIZHENGCEMIANYICHENGDULAIPINGGUQIYEDEWEILAIJIAZHI,JIANGCUNZAIZHEJIAODADEBUQUEDINGXING。QIYENEIZAIJIAZHIDEZHENSHICHENGZHANG,YINGGAIJIYUGENGDADEGUANZHU。

                                    WOMENRENWEI,YIGUONEIYIYAOCHANYEDEXIANZHUANGLAIKAN,YIYAOXINGYEJIAOKUAIDEGANGXINGZENGZHANGYOUWANGZHANGZHOUQICHIXU,QIEJIHUSUOYOUDEXIFENLINGYUDOURENGRANCUNZAIZHEJUDADECHANYESHENGJIKONGJIAN。ERYIYAOXINGYEDEYOUZHIQIYE,WUBUSHITONGGUOYANZHECHANYEJIAZHILIANXIANGGENGGAOCHUDEBUDUANPANDENG,LAISHIXIANDEZHANGZHOUQICHIXUCHENGZHANG。HENGRUIYIYAO、AIERYANKEDENGLONGTOUGONGSIJUNSHIDIANXINGDEDAIBIAO。YOUQISHIZAIZHENGCEPINCHUDEBEIJINGXIA,DUIQIYEERYAN,PEIYU、KAITUOGENGGAOBILEI、GENGDAJIAZHIDECHANPIN/FUWU,YISHIDUIKANGKONGFEIYALI、SHIXIANJINYIBUZENGZHANGDEZUIJIAFANGSHI。

                                    因此,对于 2020 年的医药板块投资,我们建议继续沿着产业升级的脉络,来挖掘企业价值的真实成长。如:

                                    1) 制药工业:国产创新药大时代的来临,国内优质医药制造企业对全球市场的抢占,以及部分医药消费品进一步的渗透率提升和放量;

                                    2) 医疗器械:体外诊断、消化内境和耗材、骨科耗材等领域,国内优质企业的技术突破和进口替代;

                                    3) 医疗服务和药店:龙头企业市占率的进一步提升,以及商业模式的创新。


                                    对战牛牛 YI、ZHIYAOGONGYE:ZUIHUAIDESHIDAI?ZUIHAODESHIDAI?

                                    RUGUOSHUO 2019 NIANKONGFEIZHENGCEDUIXINGYEDEYINGXIANGZHUYAOHAISHITINGLIUZAIJUBUPINZHONGHESHICHANGYUQICENGMIANDEHUA,NEIME 2020 NIANSUIZHEJICAIZAIGUOJIAHEDIFANGCENGMIANDETUIGUANG、JIYAOSHIYONGBILIDENGHOUXUCUOSHIDEGENJIN,WOMENYUJIZHENGCEDUIXINGYEDESHIZHIYINGXIANGHUOJIANGJINYIBUJIAJU。

                                    RANER,ZAIWEIJIDEBEIHOU,XUDUODAIBIAOWEILAIFANGXIANGDEXINJINGJI、XINSHILIZHENGZAIYUNYU、ZHUANGDA。ZAIDAILIANGCAIGOUZHENGCEJIANGFANGZHIYAOXIAOSHOUBILEIDAPOHOU,JIANGCUSHIZHIYAOQIYEYANZHECHANYEJIAZHILIANTANXUNXINDEBILEI,YIQISHIXIANJINYIBUDECHENGZHANG。

                                    对战牛牛 ZHANWANGWEILAI,WOMENRENWEIGUOQUSHIJINIANZHONGYIJINGZAICHUANGXINYAOHUOGAOBILEIYIYAOZHIZAOLINGYUJINXINGLEZHASHIJILEIDEQIYE,JIANGYINGLAIQIHUANGJINDEFAZHANZHOUQI。TONGSHI,SUIZHEQIYEJIANGZHONGXINZHUANXIANGKEXUEHEJISHU,WOGUOZHIYAOGONGYEZAIQUANQIUSHICHANGDEJINGZHENGLIYEYOUWANGDAFUQIANGHUA,WOMENTONGYANGGAODUKANHAOZHONGGUOYAOQIDEGUOJIHUAQIANJING。

                                    1、医药创新:产业和资本市场的兑现期正渐行渐近

                                    对战牛牛 MIANDUIJUDADECHANYETIAOZHAN,CHUANGXINYAOYICHENGWEIGUONEIZHIYAOQIYEFEICHANGMINGQUEDESHENGJIFANGXIANG。JINNIANLAI,GUOCHANXINYAODEBAOPISHULIANGCHENGXIANCHUJIASUZENGZHANGTAISHI。ERBUFENLINGXIANQIYEXIANXINGBUJUDEPINZHONG,2019 NIANYEYIJINGZHUBUJINRULESHOUHUOJIEDUAN,BINGDAIDONGXIANGGUANGONGSISHIXIANLELIANGHAODEZIBENSHICHANGBIAOXIAN。

                                    CONGCHANYESHENGJIDELUJINGFENXI,WOMENRENWEIGUONEICHUANGXINYAOCHANYELIANDETOUZIJIAZHI,HUOJIANGZHUYAOYIXIASANTIAOLUJINGLAIYANYI:

                                    传统药企的创新升级

                                    SHISHISHANG,HENGRUIYIYAOZHENGSHIGUONEIYAOQIBUDUANDIEDAICHENGGONGSHENGJIDEDIANFAN。GUOQUERSHINIANZHONG,HENGRUIYIYAOSHIZHONGZAIYIZHANGZHOUQI、GUOJISHIYEDEBIAOZHUNSHEDINGZISHENDEFAZHANLUXIAN,BINGCHENGGONGSHIXIANLECONGFANGZHIDAOCHUANGXINDESHENGJI。2003 NIAN,GONGSISHOUGECHUANGXINYAOCHANPINAIRUIXIBUTIJIAOLELINCHUANGSHENQING,YU 2011 NIANHUOPISHANGSHI;2006 NIAN,GONGSITIJIAOAPATINILINCHUANGSHENQING,YU 2014 NIANDIHUOPISHANGSHI。SHIZHIJINRI,GONGSIYIJINGXINGCHENGLE 5 GECHANPINSHANGSHI、CHAOGUO 30 GEHOUXUANFENZIDEFENGFUDECHUANGXINYAOGUANXIAN。

                                    TONGGUOXIANGCHANYEJIAZHILIANGENGGAODUANDEBUDUANPANDENG,1998-2018 NIANHENGRUIYIYAODEYINGSHOUCONG 3.64 YIYUANZENGZHANGDAO 174.18 YIYUAN,GUIMUJINGLIRUNCONG 0.43 YIYUANZENGZHANGDAO 40.66 YIYUAN,BINGQIERENGRANBAOCHIZHEKUAISUZENGZHANGDETAISHI。

                                    DANSHI,GUONEI 17000 YIYUANDEYAOPINSHICHANG、7000 DUOJIAYAOQIDEZONGLIANG,LIYINGBUHUIZHIYOUHENGRUINENGGOUDIEDAICHENGGONG。CONGYANFATOURUQIANGDULAIKAN,2018 NIAN A GUYANFATOURUZHANYINGSHOUBIZHONGCHAOGUO 5%DEZHIYAOQIYEYIJINGJIEJIN60JIA。QIZHONGDUOJIADAXINGYAOQIDENIANYANFATOURUJINEDOUYIJINGDADAOLE5YIYUANYISHANGDELIANGJI。ZHEIYIWEIZHE,XUDUOCHUANTONGYAOQIZAIGUOQUSHUNIANZHONGYIJINGZAICHUANGXINDENGWEILAIFANGXIANGSHANGJINXINGLEJIJIDECHANGSHI。WEILAILIANGNIAN,ZHEIXIEGONGSIZAOQIBUJUDEBUFENPINZHONGYOUWANGYINGLAIERSANQILINCHUANGNAIZHIHUOPISHANGSHIDEGUANJIANJIEDIAN。YIDANYOUQIANLIDAPINZHONGYANFACHENGGONG,HENKENENGZHIJIEDAIDONGGONGSIJIBENMIANFANZHUAN,BINGCHUANGZAOJIAODADETOUZIJIHUI。


                                    Biotech (生物科技) 型公司的快速崛起

                                    SHIZHIJINRI,XINXING biotech GONGSIYICHENGWEIOUMEICHUANGXINYAODEZHUYAOYANFALAIYUAN。ZAI 2018 NIAN FDA PIZHUNSHANGSHIDE 59 KUANXINYAOZHONG,64%DEXINYAOZUICHUDEYANFAHUODONGQIYUANYU biotech GONGSI,ERKUAGUOZHIYAOGONGSIZIZHUYANFAYAOWUZHANBIJINWEI 25%。

                                    GUOQUYOUYU A GUDUISHANGSHIQIYEDEYINGLIYOUYIDINGDEYAOQIU,SHIDEXUDUOCHUANGYEXINGDESHENGWUKEJILEIGONGSIZANSHIWUFADENGLU A GUSHICHANG。2018 NIANYILAI,SUIZHESHANGWUYINGLIDESHENGWUKEJIGONGSIDALIANGDENGLUGANGJIAOSUO/KECHUANGBAN,MUQIANYIJINGYOUJIN 20 JIACHUANGXINYAOQIZAI A+H+N DENGJIGESHICHANGSHANGSHIJIAOYI,CHUANGXINYAOTOUZIBIAODEBUDUANFENGFU。

                                    ZAI biotech DECHENGZHANGLUJINGZHONG,WOMENRENWEICONG 1 DAO N(SHOUGECHUANGXINYAOSHANGSHIDAOXINGCHENGCHUANGXINYAOPINGTAI)DEGUOCHENG,JIANGSHITOUZIHUIBAOLVZUIGAODEJIEDUAN。JIANYIZHONGDIANGUANZHUBEIDAYAOYEDENGGUONEILINGXIAN biotech QIYE。


                                    CRO/CMO 有望长期享受行业高景气

                                    新药 IND (IND,Investigational New Drug,一般是指尚未经过上市审批,正在进行各阶段临床试验的新药)数量的爆发式增长,不仅为未来创新药的获批提供着源源不断的支持,也为创新配套的 CRO 和 CMO 带来长期趋势性利好。具体包括:临床需求爆发式增长对 CRO的利好,临床阶段外包生产对战牛牛对 CMO 的利好,以及外包公司参与投资的生态闭环收益。

                                    YUJIWEILAI 3 NIAN,CHUYULINCHUANGJIEDUANDECHUANGXINYAOSHULIANGYOUWANGDADAO 500-1000 GEDELIANGJI,JIANGDAILAIJUDADELINCHUANG CRO HE CMO DEXUQIU。YITAIGEYIYAOWEIDAIBIAODEYIGUONEIWAIBAOYEWUWEIZHU CRO GONGSI,YIJINGBIAOXIANCHULEQIANGJINGDEYEWUZENGZHANGTAISHI。

                                    同时,我们注意到针对国产新药的生产外包需求正在给国内 CDMO 企业带来新的业务增量。类比从“to 苹果”到“to 华为”,随着本土创新药企的大面积崛起,CDMO 企业的业务结构有望不断变化,从“to 欧美创新”到“to 本土创新”。贝达药业与九洲药业、复星医药与凯莱英等创新药企和 CDMO 企业的战略合作例证,已相继出现。

                                    2、医药制造:国内领先企业的全球比较优势有望快速凸显

                                    DAILIANGCAIGOUQUANMIANTUIXINGDEBEIJINGXIA,FANGZHIYAOPUBIANCHENGSHOUDAOLEJIAODADEJIANGJIAYALI,ZHEIYESHIDESHICHANGDUIYIYAOZHIZAOLEIQIYEDEWEILAICHENGZHANGXINGCUNZAIZHEYIDINGDEYIWEN。

                                    KEGUANERYAN,WOMENRENWEIYIKAOXIAOSHOUNENGLISHIXIANFANGZHIYAODAPINZHONGFANGLIANGDESHIDAIYIJINGCHENGWEIGUOWANG。DANSHI,ZHEIBINGBUDAIBIAOZHEYIYAOZHIZAOLINGYUWANQUANSHIQUCHENGZHANGXING。JINGGUOGUOQUERSHINIANDEJIDIAN,ZHONGGUOLINGXIANZHIZAOQIYEDEHUAXUEHECHENG/FAJIAONENGLIHEGAOZHILIANGCHANNENGDEJIANSHE/YUNXINGNENGLI,YIJINGNENGGOUYUQUANQIUJINGZHENGDUISHOUKANGHENG。

                                    对战牛牛 JINGGUODUONIANDEJILEI,WOGUOLINGXIANYIYAOZHIZAOQIYEDECHANNENGJIANSHENENGLI、GMP TIXI、CHANPINYANFASHENBAONENGLI,YEYIJINGZHUBUJIEJINLEOUMEIHEYINDUJINGZHENGDUISHOUDESHUIPING。2019 NIAN,GUONEITESEYUANLIAOYAOHEZHIJICHUKOUQIYESHOUYIYUXINGYEJINGQIZHOUQIDEKAIQI,YIPUBIANZAIBAOBIAODUANCHENGXIANCHULIANGHAODEZENGZHANGTAISHI。

                                    3、医药消费:仍是较好的配置选择


                                    CHULECHUANGXINHEZHIZAOWAI,WOMENRENWEIBUFENZHENGCERAODONGJIAOSHAODEYIYAOXIAOFEIPIN,TONGYANGYESHIJIAOHAODEPEIZHIXUANZE,ZHUYAOBAOKUOPINPAIZHONGYAO、BUFENPIANXIAOFEISHUXINGDEZHUANKEYAOYIJIERLEIYIMIAODENG。

                                    ZHONGYAOLINGYUWOMENKANHAOPINPAIZHONGYAO。PINPAIZHONGYAOSUIRANLISHIYOUJIU,DANJINNIANLAIPINPAIZHONGYAOQIYEHUOTONGGUOYINGXIAOCHUANGXINRANGLAOPINZHONGDEZENGZHANGHUANFALEXINHUOLI(RUPIANZIHUANGTIYANGUANMOSHILADONGLEPIANZIHUANGDANPINDEJIAOKUAIZENGZHANG),HUOTONGGUODAJIANKANGDENGLINGYUDEPINLEITUOZHANGDAILAILEXINDELIRUNZENGZHANGDIAN(RUYUNNANBAIYAODEJIANKANGCHANPINSHIYEBUYICHENGWEIGONGSILIRUNDEZHUYAOLAIYUANZHIYI),CHENGXIANCHULIANGHAODEFAZHANTAISHI。SUIZHEGUOQIGAIGEDETUIJIN,BUFENPINPAIZHONGYAOQIYETIZHIDEYILISHUN,TUICHULEGUQUANJILIFANGAN,YOUWANGBENGFAXINDEZENGZHANGHUOLI。

                                    BUFENZHUANKEYAORUSHENGZHANGJISUDENGRENGYOUJIAOGUANGKUODESHICHANGQIANJING。WEILAISUIZHEJUMINXIAOFEISHUIPINGDETIGAO、CHANPINSHENTOULVDETISHENG、SHIYINGZHENGDETUOZHAN,SHENGZHANGJISUSHICHANGRENGYOUWANGWEICHIGAOZENGZHANG。

                                    DANGQIAN“YIMIAOSHIJIAN”YINGXIANGYIZHUJIANXIAOTUI,YIMIAOXUQIUGANGXING,ERLEIYIMIAOSHUYUZIFEIPINZHONG,BUSHOUYIBAOKONGFEIYINGXIANG。SHOUYIYUYILIAOXIAOFEISHENGJI,ERLEIYIMIAODESHENTOULVRENGYOUJIAODATISHENGKONGJIAN。

                                    对战牛牛 2019 NIAN 12 YUE 1 RI,XINDE《YIMIAOGUANLIFA》ZHENGSHISHISHI,XINGYEJIANGUANGENGJIAYANGE,YOUWANGTUIDONGXINGYEJIZHONGDUTISHENG。SUIZHEYIMIAODAPINZHONGDELUXUSHANGSHI(RUGUOCHAN 13 JIAFEIYANQIUJUNCHANPIN,KANGTAISHENGWU、WOSENSHENGWUJUNCHUYUXIANCHANGHECHAJIEDUAN,YOUWANGMINGNIANHUOPI),XINGYEYEYOUWANGJINRUKUAISUZENGZHANGQI。

                                    ER、YILIAOQIXIE:YOUXUANGAOZENGZHANGXIFENBANKUAI

                                    中国医疗器械市场正处于高速发展时期。对战牛牛2011-2018 年,中国医疗器械市场规模复合增速达到 20%,高于药品、医药商业、医疗服务三大医药市场细分领域。2018 年中国医疗器械市场规模达到 5304 亿元,同比增长约 20%。

                                    中国医疗器械市场增速远高于全球医疗器械市场。

                                    中国医疗器械行业资本化进程加速。

                                    医疗器械头部企业体量更大,增速更快。对战牛牛从医疗器械各细分领域来看:

                                    1)CHAOSHENGSHICHANGSHANG,MAIRUIYILIAODESHOURUTILIANG、ZENGZHANGSUDUYAOGAOYUKAILIYILIAO,SHOUZHAOCAIDENGYINSUDEYINGXIANGYEBIKAILIYILIAOYAOXIAO;

                                    2)HUAXUEFAGUANGSHICHANGSHANG,MAIRUIYILIAO、ANTUSHENGWUDESHOURUTILIANGYAOYUANYUANDAYUMAIKESHENGWU,WOMENYUJIJINNIANMAIRUIYILIAOHUAXUEFAGUANGSHOURUTILIANGYOUWANGCHAOGUOANTUSHENGWU;

                                    对战牛牛 3)POCT SHICHANGSHANG,WANFUSHENGWUDESHOURUZENGSUYAOGAOYUJIDANSHENGWU、MINGDESHENGWU,YEJIWENDINGXINGYEGENGQIANG。

                                    中国医疗器械行业集中度依然较低。

                                    中国医疗器械市场高端领域仍然由外企主导。对战牛牛从细分领域来看:1)化学发光市场上,2018 年国内企业市场份额不足 20%,海外企业市场份额超过 80%;2)超声市场上,2018 年国内企业市场份额不足 50%;3)软镜市场上,2017 年国内企业市场份额不足1%,市场几乎全部由三家日本企业占领。

                                    国内医疗器械行业研发投入金额整体处于较低水平,主要体现在研发的绝对金额和研发投入占销售收入比重。

                                    多因素推动行业持续高增长:

                                    分级诊疗政策持续推进给国内医疗器械公司提供发展机遇。在分级诊疗等政策的推动下,国产医疗器械渠道下沉逐步推进,推动了国产医疗器械的高增长。如国内化学发光代表企业迈瑞医疗近年来化学发光业务收入增速均高于 50%;国内 POCT 企业如万孚生物、基蛋生物 17、18 年收入增速也均高于 30%;ICL(第三方医学实验室)行业也呈现高增长态势。

                                    自身研发投入加海外并购优质项目并举,国内医疗器械公司核心竞争力得以持续提升。如开立医疗推出国内首台高清内窥镜,迈瑞医疗收购美国超声技术开发公司 ZONARE之后进入了中高端超声市场,安图生物推出的微磁粒化学发光产品较微孔板化学发光产品性能上有更好的提升。

                                    国家密集出台政策,鼓励采购支持国产优秀医疗设备 。自 2016 年以来,中国医学装备协会共发布了 5 批优秀国产医疗设备产品目录,涉及彩超、CT、监护仪等共 53 个品类,其中迈瑞医疗、开立医疗、联影医疗、万孚生物等多家企业的多款产品进入目录。

                                    在国家控制药占比、压缩药品盈利空间的情况下,医院检测费用收入占比呈现提升态势。

                                    优质本土医疗器械公司走出国门,产品销往国外 。2017 年,在全球监护仪和麻醉机市场迈瑞医疗市占率均排名第 3 位。2016 年,在全球超声市场上迈瑞医疗和开立医疗市占率分别位列第 6 位和第 10 位。万孚生物是国内最早做妊娠及优生优育检测、毒品检测出口业务的 POCT 企业,当前公司的免疫荧光定量平台也正处于出口放量过程中。

                                    在体外诊断市场,我们认为化学发光、POCT、分子诊断等细分领域,国产企业均具有较好的成长前景。我们看好各细分赛道龙头企业的未来成长。

                                    消化内镜和耗材:国产企业有望从耗材率先突破。

                                    NEIKUIJINGBILEIJIAOGAOQIEWOGUOQIBUJIAOWAN,RIBENHEDEGUOCHANGSHANGZHANZHUDAODIWEI,JINKOUTIDAICHENGDUHENDI,GUOCHANCHANPINZONGTIZHANBIBUZU 5%。GUONEIYINGJINGCHANGSHANGYOUSHENYANGSHENDA、ZHEJIANGTIANSONGDENG。GUONEIRUANJINGCHANGSHANGYOUKAILIYILIAO、SHANGHAIAOHUA、SHANGHAICHENGYUNDENG。

                                    GUONEIQIYEYOUWANGCONGNEIJINGHAOCAILINGYULVXIANQUDETUPO。RUNANWEIYIXUEYIJINGLVXIANZAIZHIXUEJIASHANGSHIXIANLETUPO,ZAIJIAGESHANGJIAOBOKEYOUJIAODAYOUSHI,YOUWANGJIAOKUAISHIXIANJINKOUTIDAI。NEIKUIJINGWEICHUANGSHOUSHUPEITAOSHEBEISHICHANGGUOCHANCHANGJIAJINKOUTIDAICHENGDUJIAORUAN/YINGJINGSHICHANGYAOGAO,JINKOUTIDAIYOUWANGCHIXUJIAOKUAITUIJIN。BIAODEFANGMIAN,JIANYIZHONGDIANGUANZHUNANWEIYIXUE、KAILIYILIAO。

                                    骨科植入耗材:受益人口老龄化,进口替代空间广阔

                                    DEYIYUWOGUOPANGDADERENKOUJISHU、RENKOULAOLINGHUACHENGDUJIASUDENG,WOGUOGUKEZHIRUHAOCAISHICHANGGUIMOCONG2014 DE 139 YIYUANZENGZHANGZHI 2018 NIANDE 262 YIYUAN,FUHEZENGSUDADAO 17%。GUKEZHIRUWUANSHIYONGBUWEIBUTONGKEYIFENWEICHUANGSHANGLEI、JIZHULEI、GUANJIELEIHEQITA。

                                    CHUANGSHANGSHICHANGSHIDANGQIANSHICHANGGUIMODIERDEXIFENBANKUAI,2018 NIANSHICHANGGUIMOYUEWEI 75 YIYUAN,TONGBIZENGZHANG14%。CHUANGSHANGSHICHANGYESHIWEIYIYOUGUOCHANCHANGJIAZHUDAODESHICHANG,2018 NIANGUOCHANCHANGJIASHICHANGFENEWEI 68%。

                                    对战牛牛 JIZHUISHICHANG 2018 NIANGUIMOYUEWEI 76 YIYUAN,TONGBIZENGZHANG 17%,CHAOYUECHUANGSHANGSHICHANGCHENGWEIGUKEZHIRUHAOCAISHICHANGGUIMODIYIDEXIFENBANKUAI。2018 NIANGUOCHANCHANGSHANGSHICHANGFENEWEI 39%,JINKOUTIDAIRENGYOUJIAODAKONGJIAN。

                                    GUANJIESHICHANG 2018 NIANGUIMOYUEWEI 73 YIYUAN,TONGBIZENGZHANG 22%,ZAISANDABANKUAIZHONGZENGSUDIYI。GUANJIECHANPINJISHUBILEIJIAOGAO,2018 NIANGUOCHANCHANGSHANGSHICHANGFENEJINYOU 27%,ZHUYAOCHANGSHANGYOUCHUNLIYILIAO、DABOYILIAODENG,JINKOUTIDAIRENGYOUJIAODAKONGJIAN。

                                    SAN、YILIAO&YAODIAN:XINGYEKONGJIANGUANGKUO,JIZHONGDUYOUWANGCHIXUTISHENG

                                    FUWUHEYAODIANSHIYIYAOXINGYEZHONGZENGZHANGJIAOKUAIDELIANGGEXIFENBANKUAI。LIANGGEBANKUAIJINGYINGMOSHIDOUDUOWEILIANSUOJINGYING,QIYEYEJIDEZENGZHANGYIFANGMIANLAIZIMENDIANDEKUOZHANG,LINGYIFANGMIANLAIZILAODIANDEWAQIANZENGXIAO。MUQIANLIANGGEBANKUAICHENGZHANGKONGJIANGUANGKUO,QIEJIZHONGDUJIAODI。LONGTOUQIYEYOUWANGPINGJIEQIANGDADEKUOZHANGNENGLIHEGAOXIAODEGUANLISHUIPINGCHIXUTISHENGZISHENSHIZHANLV,TUIDONGXINGYEJIZHONGDUDETISHENG。

                                    医疗服务:持续高景气,龙头企业享受确定性溢价

                                    YILIAOFUWUBANKUAISHISHOUDAOYIBAOKONGFEIZHENGCEYINGXIANGJIAOXIAODELINGYU。YIBAOZHICHUZHUYAOFENWEIYAOPIN、QIXIEHEFUWU。SUIZHEYAOPIN、QIXIEBANKUAIFEIYONGDEYASUO,YILIAOFUWUDEJIAGEYOUWANGZHUBUYUQIJIAZHIXIANGPIPEI。SUIZHEMINZHONGJIANKANGYISHIDETISHENG、CHANPIN/SHOUSHUSHENTOULVDETISHENG,YILIAOFUWUBANKUAIGAOJINGQIYOUWANGDEYIWEICHI。

                                    YANKE、KOUQIANG、TIJIAN、ICL LINGYUCHANPINJIAOWEIBIAOZHUNHUA,JUYOUKEFUZHIXING,SHIHELIANSUOJINGYING。DANYOUYUXINKAIMENDIANCONGKAISHEDAOYINGLIXUYAOYIDINGSHIJIANZHOUQI,DUANQINEIDUIGONGSIYEJIJIANGZAOCHENGYIDINGTUOLEI。YINCISHANGSHIMINYINGQIYEDUOCAIYONGCANGUSHELICHANYEJIJIN、XINDIANTIWAIPEIYUCHENGSHUHOUBINGBIAODEFANGSHI,LAIDADAOMENDIANKUAISUKUOZHANGQIEGONGSILIRUNDUANCHIXUJIAOKUAIZENGZHANGDESHUANGZHONGMUBIAO。RUAIERYANKE 2014-2018 NIANLIANXU 5 NIANGUIMUJINGLIRUNZENGSUCHAOGUO 30%,YEYINCIXIANGSHOULEYEJIZENGZHANGQUEDINGXINGDAILAIDEGAOGUZHIYIJIA。

                                    零售药店:龙头企业市占率提升拉动自身继续较快增长

                                    对战牛牛 SHANGSHIGONGSIYINLINGXINGYEYETAICHUANGXIN,JIJIBUJUJIAMENG、O2O DENGXINYETAI,TUOZHANGONGSILIRUNLAIYUAN。CHULEZHIYINGYEWUWAI,SHANGSHIGONGSIJIAMENGYEWUCHENGXIANGAOSUFAZHANTAISHI。JIAMENGDIANJINGLILVSHUIPINGYUZHIYINGDIANXIANGDANG,YOUWANGCHENGWEISHANGSHIGONGSIXINDELIRUNZENGZHANGDIAN。ER O2O ZUOWEIWANGSHOUCHUFANGYAOLUODIDEZHUYAOXINGSHIZHIYI,SHANGSHIGONGSIZAIBUJUSHANGYECHUYUXINGYELINGXIANDIWEI。QIZHONG,YIFENGYAOFANG 2018 NIAN O2O SHANGXIANMENDIANCHAOGUO 2500JIA,LAOBAIXING 2019 SHANGBANNIAN O2O YEWUWANCHENGCHAO 200 WANDINGDAN。

                                    SI、2020 NIANYIYAOXINGYENIANDUTOUZICELVEJIZHONGDIANTUIJIANGONGSI

                                    MUQIANYIYAOBANKUAIDE 20 NIAN、21 NIANYUCESHIYINGLVFENBIEWEI 27 BEI、22 BEI。KAOLVDAOYIYAOBANKUAIZAIWEILAIHENZHANGZHOUQIZHONGRENGJIANGJUBEICHIXUWEICHI 10%-15%LIRUNZENGZHANGDENENGLI,QIEBUFENYOUXUANSAIDAOLIRUNZENGSUYOUWANGBAOCHI 20%YISHANG,WOMENRENWEIYIYAOBANKUAIRENGJUYOUJIAOHAOTOUZIJIAZHI。

                                    BIAODEFANGMIAN,JIEHESHANGWENFENXI,WOMENJIXUZHONGDIANKANHAOGEXIFENLINGYUZHONGYEWUMUQIANRENGJUBEIJIAOHAOBILEIHECHIXUCHENGZHANGQIANJINGDEBUFENYOUZHILONGTOU,RU:

                                    对战牛牛 1) CHUANGXINYAOQIYEJIQIPEITAOCHANYELIAN,ZHONGDIANTUIJIANHENGRUIYIYAO、BEIDAYAOYE、KAILAIYING、JIUZHOUYAOYEDENG;

                                    对战牛牛 2) YIYAOZHIZAOLINGYU,KANHAOTESEYUANLIAOYAOHEZHIJICHUKOU,RUPULIZHIYAO、HUAHAIYAOYE、TIANYUGUFEN、XIANJUZHIYAO、SITAILI、MEINUOHUADENG;

                                    对战牛牛 3) YIYAOXIAOFEILINGYU,KANHAOPINPAIZHONGYAO、BUFENZHUANKEYAO、ERLEIYIMIAO,RUYUNNANBAIYAO、PIANZIHUANG、ZHANGCHUNGAOXIN、KANGTAISHENGWUDENG;

                                    4) YILIAOQIXIELINGYU,KANHAO IVD BANKUAIDEHUAXUEFAGUANG、POCT、FENZIZHENDUAN,XIAOHUANEIJINGHEHAOCAI,GUKEZHIRUHAOCAI,RUMAIRUIYILIAO、WANFUSHENGWU、NANWEIYIXUE、DABOYILIAODENG;

                                    5) YILIAOFUWUHEYAODIANLINGYU,KANHAOLONGTOUQIYEDELIANSUOKUOZHANGHESHIZHANLVDETISHENG,RUAIERYANKE、LAOBAIXING、YIFENGYAOFANGDENG。

                                    一文看懂医药行业2020年度投资策略

                                    重点关注标的:

                                    康弘药业:

                                    GONGSIXINZENGLIANGDASHIYINGZHENGJINYIBAO,YIBAOTANPANJIEGUOJIAOLEGUAN,KANGBOXIPUYOUWANGCHIXUFANGLIANG。2020-2021NIANGONGSIKANGBOXIPUYOUWANGYONGJIAOXIAODEJIAGEJIANGFUDAILAIJIASUFANGLIANG,HUAYAOJIZHONGYAOCHIXUTIGONGWENDINGXIANJINLIU。JIYUDUINIANBAOYUQIXIAJIANG,WOMENXIADIAOLEYINGLIYUCE,YUJI2019-2021NIANGUIMUJINGLIRUNFENBIEWEI7.40YIYUAN、8.54YIYUAN、10.24YIYUAN,DUIYINGZENGSUFENBIEWEI6.5%,15.3%,19.9%,EPSFENBIEWEI0.85YUAN、0.97YUAN、1.17YUAN,DUIYINGPEFENBIEWEI46X、39X、33X。WEICHI“MAIRU”PINGJI。 (FABUSHIJIAN:2019-01-15 LAIYUAN:GUOSHENGZHENGQUAN)

                                    贝达药业:

                                    ZUOWEIZUICHUDECHUANGXINZHE、GUONEICHUCHUANGXINGCHUANGXINYAOQIYEDEDIANXINGDAIBIAO,GONGSIYIJINGKUAYUELEYOUDANKUANCHANPINCHENGQIDABUFENYINGSHOUDEZAOQIJIEDUAN,MUQIANGONGSIYANFAGUANXIANJIANRUJIAJING。CONG2020NIANKAISHIGONGSIBUJINJINSHIZHIYOUAIKETINI1GEZHONGBANGPINZHONG,KAISHILECONG1DAONDESHOUHUOJIEDUAN。ZUOWEIGUONEIXIQUEDECHUANGXINYAOBIAODE,CONGXIAOFENZIBAXIANGDAODAFENZISHENGWUYAOQUANMIANFAZHAN,YANFAGUANXIANCHUBEIFENGFU;XIAOSHOUTUANDUISHICHANGTUIGUANGNENGLIQIANGDA。CONGZIZHUYANFADAOBINGGOUYINJIN,GUOJIHUADEKANGZHONGLIUPINGTAICHENGXING。YUJIGONGSI2019-2021NIANGUIMUJINGLIRUNFENBIEWEI2.50/3.45/4.52YIYUAN,EPSFENBIEWEI0.62/0.86/1.13YUAN,DUIYINGPEWEI108/79/60BEI,SHOUCIFUGAIJIYU“MAIRU”DETOUZIPINGJI。 (FABUSHIJIAN:2018-12-19 LAIYUAN:HUAXIZHENGQUAN)

                                    FENGXIANTISHI:

                                    对战牛牛 1. YIGAIZHENGCEDUIXINGYEYINGXIANGDAYUYUQI;

                                    对战牛牛 2. YIBAOJIJINYUNXINGYALIDAYUYUQI。


                                    一文看懂医药行业2020年度投资策略



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